Online betting players will probably look to New York when theyre thinking of World Series picks, and even though they dont offer much value, you cant really go wrong when looking at the lineup for the defending World Series champions. The Yankees are comfortable at the plate, in the field and on the mound, and its going to take a massive effort from another team to take the American League crown away from the Bronx Bombers.

New York Yankees Odds Offense
The Yankees led the American League in runs, home runs, and they were second in RBIs, and its pretty likely theyll challenge for the lead in those categories again this year. They lost Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui, a trio that combined for 65 homers, but Matsui and Damon are getting up there in years, and Cabrera will be replaced by Curtis Granderson, who made the All-Star team for the first time with Detroit. Granderson was eighth in the league in triples, and with Derek Jeter, gives the Yankees another good baserunner for the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Mark Texieira and new DH Nick Johnson to drive in. Hopefully, Nick Swisher can get out of the funk he was in during the postseason last year.

New York Yankees Odds Pitching
New Yorks sportsbook odds took a good shot when 37-year-old Andy Pettitte decided to come back after a phenomenal postseason in which he went 4-0 (including 2-0 in the World Series), and they also re-acquired Javier Vazquez from Atlanta (he spent 2004 in the Bronx). This gives some depth to a rotation that already has C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett at the top end, although Burnett is still volatile from start to start. Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes will battle for the fifth spot, again, and the Yankees are just hoping either is consistent enough to take it. Chad Gaudin and Damaso Marte are the top middle relievers, and Mariano Rivera is still one of the top 3-5 closers in the game until he shows otherwise.

New York Yankees Odds Manager
Joe Girardi added a ring as a manager to his three World Series rings while playing for the Yankees in 1996 to 1999, and his relationship with the core of Jeter, Pettitte, Rivera and Jorge Posada (Girardi mentored Posada behind the plate when he came through the system) was essential to this. Girardi let them lead this team, which wasnt easy with high expectations after they splashed out $423.5 million for Sabathia, Texieira and Burnett. The Yankees have pulled back the reins on the spending, but the expectations are still the same, and Girardi changed his uniform number from 27 to 28, in honor of the chase for the Yankees 28th title.

New York Yankees Odds Betting Prediction
The Yankees are still the World Series favorites in your sportsbook, as well as the American League favorites, and their main challengers will probably come within their own division, as their rivals from Boston wont go down easily, and Tampa Bay is always lurking in the background. Offensively, the Yankees can make up for the losses of Damon and Matsui if Swisher and Johnson pull their weight. Defensively, the Yankees dont get enough credit for being one of the best fielding teams in all of baseball. The starting pitching is improved, depending on the notoriously flaky Vazquez and Burnett, and the bullpen is deep. If the Yankees make it out of the American League East, they should have a clear path to the World Series.

The Boston Red Sox betting odds are second-best in baseball this year but unfortunately, they are still second best in their own division. While they have made some strides in the offseason, so have their rival New York Yankees. Were likely heading for another ALCS showdown between the two this year but the Yankees are just slightly better and online betting cappers should see them finish slightly ahead.
.

Batting Lineup Boston Red Sox Baseball betting
Sportsbook odds makers know that the real reason why the Red Sox are a step behind the Yankees is the batting lineup. With Manny Ramirez gone and David Ortiz struggling last year, the Red Sox simply couldnt match up with the Yankees lineup. So whats changed?
The Red Sox did pick up Victor Martinez midseason and now theyll have him for a full year, which is a good start. Also, the Red Sox added Marco Scutaro to hit at the top of the lineup, and Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron to the heart. While Scutaro is coming off an excellent season, well have to see if he can duplicate his success. Beltre is also a question mark after a horrible offensive season and while hes good defensively, the team may miss Mike Lowells bat.
The big difference maker has to be Ortiz. He had several awful months last year and the Red Sox need his big bat, especially now that Jason Bay is gone.
This is not a lineup looking for balance and depth all the way through opposed to relying on two big boppers like Ramirez and Ortiz with help around them.

Starting Pitching Boston Red Sox Baseball betting
While the Red Sox lineup has questions, the pitching staff has far less. The Red Sox starting rotation could be the best in all of baseball.
In addition to Josh Beckett and Jon Lester, the Red Sox signed John Lackey in the offseason. Throw in a potential rebound year from Daisuke Matsuzaka and youngster Clay Buchholz, who added 13 pounds in the offseason, and the Red Sox have a scary top five.
Tim Wakefield is still around to soak up some innings if necessary as well. MLB betting fans know this could very well be the best unit in all of the Majors.

Bullpen Boston Red Sox Baseball betting
The bullpen was a rock for the Red Sox in 2009 and they are hoping that it carries over in 2010. The reason they have that concern in the back of their minds is because the bullpen was a big flop in the playoffs against the Los Angeles Angels.
The Red Sox have some really good pieces here with up-and-comer Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez. There isnt much to worry about here.

Outlook Boston Red Sox Baseball betting
Sports betting cappers know that once again, it will be the Yankees versus the Red Sox in the American League. While the pitching of both sides is very close maybe with the Red Sox receiving a slight edge there the Yankees have a big edge in batting, which should be the difference.
Also, the Red Sox will feel the pressure this year while the Yankees should be loose after winning it all last year. Unless injuries become a factor, the Red Sox will still be second-best in the Majors, in the American League and in their division.

Projected Finish In Division: Second in AL East

Our World Series predictions for 2009 may come to a close tonight in MLB betting as the New York Yankees host the Philadelphia Phillies for Game 6. The Bronx Bombers send Andy Pettitte, Major League Baseballs all-time playoff wins leader, to the mound. Philly counters with future Hall-of-Famer Pedro Martinez. As they may learn tonight, starting Pedro on the road again could cost the Phillies the Fall Classic.

World Series predictions: Only a matter of time before Yankee fans get to Martinez

Pedro Martinezs road ERA this regular season was 5.66; his home ERA was 1.88
Andy Pettitte pitching well at home in the playoffs but Jayson Werth has his number
Pedro Martinez is winless in last five playoff starts against Yankees

Tonight, 7:57 p.m. ET
Phillies vs Yankees odds: Phillies +173, Yankees -208
Pedro Martinez (0-1, 4.50) vs Andy Pettitte (1-0, 6.00)

Time will tell if Charlie Manuel will regret not starting Cliff Lee on short rest in Game 4. If he had, Pedro Martinez couldve faced the Yankees at home in Game 5. At Citizens Bank Park this season, Pedros ERA was 1.88. On the road, it was 5.66. By holding Lee until Game 5, Manuel pushed Pedro to a road start in Game 6 at Yankee Stadium. Martinez was adequate in the Bronx in Game 2, allowing three earned runs over six innings and striking out eight. He wasnt untouchable, however; Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui took him deep and Pedro was saddled with the loss, exiting the field to a chorus of Whos your daddy? chants form the Yankee faithful.

Its entirely possible that Pedros Game 2 effort was the best he can do at Yankee Stadium; considering that hes winless in his last six appearances and five starts versus the Yankees in the postseason, can online betting fans seriously expect a sparkling performance from him tonight?

In Andy Pettitte, the Yankees know what they have tonight. Hes reliable without being dominant at home. We know he struggles with the gopher ball lefty masher Jayson Werth tagged him for two deep flies in Game 3 but the sportsbook odds of a complete Pettitte implosion are slim. Hes comfortable at home and showed that in his lone Yankee Stadium start this postseason, holding the Angels to one run over 6.1 innings on October 25.

Free sports picks: Since the aging Martinez and Pettitte struggle to keep the ball in the park now, we should expect another high-scoring affair in Game 6. However, the decision to start Pedro on the road will be costly. He could totally crumble while Pettitte does just enough to give his team the lead late in the game. If the Yankees take a lead even into the eighth inning, theyll likely turn to Mariano Rivera for a two-inning save. If they do, the Fall Classic is all but over. Free Pick the Yankees to clinch tonight.

Phillies vs Yankees Free sport picks: Yankees -208

If the Phillies extend the series, check the Free sport picks tomorrow for more World Series predictions from Dale Lalonde at BetOnline.com.

Dale Lalonde is BetOnline.com’s MLB expert.

As World Series picks, the Yankees look pretty darned good right now. Thanks to clutch hits from Johnny Damon, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada, New York eked out another MLB betting triumph Sunday night to take a 3-1 stranglehold on the Fall Classic. Two main obstacles stand in their way for Game 5 tonight: Cliff Lee and, believe it or not, their very own A.J. Burnett.

World Series Free Picks: Burnett still hasnt shown he can handle pressure in road games

Burnetts road ERA a run higher than his home ERA this regular season
In lone road start in 2009 playoffs, Burnett allowed four earned runs in the first inning
Cliff Lee has a 0.54 ERA in four 2009 postseason starts

Tonight, 7:57 p.m. ET
Yankees vs Phillies odds: Yankees +133, Phillies -153
A.J. Burnett (1-0, 1.29) vs Cliff Lee (1-0, 0.00)

As a former baseball skipper, I have to say I wouldnt have held Cliff Lee for Game 5. If he started Game 4, he couldve been available for a potential Game 7 sports betting thriller. Also, Pedro Martinez, who fares better at home since joining the Phillies, couldve started Game 5 at Citizens Bank Park instead of going back to Bronx and its jeering fans for Game 6. Regardless, the Phillies are in excellent hands tonight. Cliff Lees postseason stats are absurdly good: four starts, 0.54 ERA, three wins, two complete games, three walks. In his dominant Game 1 at New York, he didnt walk a single batter. Theres no reason to expect Lee will let up tonight. Hes simply locked in.

A.J. Burnett dominated Game 2 of the World Series indeed, striking out nine batters. His stuff is always electric, but his control was so spot-on that he got lots of called third strikes. However, whenever Burnett dazzles, we have to ask where he dazzled. Naturally, he did it in New York. His home ERA this regular season was 3.51, over a run lower than his 4.59 road mark. Based on his results away from Yankee Stadium, its fair to question Burnetts mental toughness. He imploded in his only road start of these playoffs, allowing four earned runs to the Angels in the first inning on October 22.

How, then, can online betting sharps trust a pitcher who struggles in tough road environments to succeed in Philadelphia, arguably the toughest place for anyone to play in?

Free sports picks: The Phillies have too much going for them tonight a dominant pitcher on his regular rest and a mentally shaky pitcher entering the hornets nest that is a Philadelphia crowd atmosphere. Bet on the Phillies to stay alive and force Game 6.

Yankees vs Phillies Free sport picks: Phillies -153

The BetOnline.com sportsbook updates the Yankees vs Phillies odds for your World Series picks multiple times daily. Keep reading Dale Lalondes analysis for the Free sport picks on every game of the Fall Classic.

Dale Lalonde is BetOnline.com’s MLB expert.

BetOnline.com ALCS picks tonight put a second Los Angeles team on the spot after the Dodgers bowed out of the playoffs last night, sending the Phillies to their second straight World Series. Can the Angels stay alive at home versus the powerful Yankees? Or is their number up in MLB betting?

BetOnline.com ALCS picks: Angel hitters cold as ice, Yankees quite the opposite

Six Angel regulars batting .222 or worse this postseason
A.J. Burnett gets good run support on the road
Alex Rodriguez becoming Mr. October

Tonight, 7:57 p.m. ET
Yankees vs Angels odds: Yankees +100, Angels -120
A.J. Burnett (0-0, 2.19) vs John Lackey (1-1, 1.38)

Say what you want about John Lackey and the impact of pitching in this series, but the Angel bats have to wake up. After keeping pace with the Yankees statistically all season, theyve gone ice-cold. Five of L.A.s nine regulars are batting below .200 and six are at .222 or worse. Lackeys performance wont matter unless the Angels get something from Chone Figgins (.071), Kendry Morales (.154), Mike Napoli (.154), Maicer Izturis (.167) and Juan Rivera (.179).

In theory, the Angels have a shot to stay alive tonight if the bats come around. Lackey pitches well at home and turned in the better of his two 2009 playoff starts there. Meanwhile, New Yorks A.J. Burnett struggled on the road this season, posting a 4.59 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Hes flourished in his first career playoff action but his sportsbook odds will take a hit in his playoff road debut. Remember, as Toronto Blue Jay fans proved earlier this season, Burnett can lose focus if jeered in a hostile environment.

However, theres another stat worth noting; despite that 4.59 road ERA, Burnett still went 8-6 away from Yankee Stadium this season. When you pitch for the Bronx Bombers, you get oodles of run support. With Alex Rodriguez absolutely on fire, smashing five homers already this postseason, you can bet the Yankee bats will give Burnett something to work with.

Free sports picks: Its not that Lackey will back down but you just get the feeling that the Angels are mentally beaten, just as the Dodgers were last night. The Yankees are just too experienced and their bats are too hot right now; theyve been here before and have the killer instinct to finish the series. Free Pick New York in your online betting.

Yankees vs Angels Free sport picks: Yankees +100

Sports betting doesnt stop with the BetOnline.com ALCS Free Picks. Keep reading the Free sport picks for comprehensive MLB coverage right through to the end of the World Series.

Dale Lalonde is BetOnline.com’s MLB expert.

World Series odds up already? You bet. With a matchup so epic and so evenly matched, online betting sharps need all the time they can get to prepare for the Yankees/Phillies series. We know these teams have truckloads of World Series rings. We know the Phillies bullpen and Yankees starting rotation have question marks. So who has the edge?

World Series Odds: Three-man pitching rotation can only carry Yankees for so long

WHAT: World Series betting
WHEN: Tentative start date is Wednesday, October 28, time TBD
KEY STAT: Yankees and Phillies ranked first and second in the majors in homers this season
PICK: Phillies in seven

World Series odds maker breakdown: Hitting lineup
Choosing between these two lineups in MLB betting is like choosing between Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen does one have an advantage over the other? The Phillies and Yankees easily boast the two deepest, most powerful, most intimidating lineups in baseball. Both teams tear the cover off the ball; four Phillies had 30-plus homers and seven Yankees had 20-plus homers. The Phillies have Ryan Howard but the Yanks have Mark Teixeira; the Phillies have Chase Utley but the Yanks have Robinson Cano. The list goes on.

Arguably, the Phillies are better baserunners than the Yankees, as their best athletes Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and even Utley are in their primes while the Yankees fleet-footed regulars Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter are getting older and slowing down.

Since the Yankees hitting lineup may be slightly deeper at the bottom of the order, they cancel out Phillys baserunning advantage. These two offenses are dead even.

Free sport picks: Draw

World Series odds maker breakdown: Starting pitching
The Phillies and Yankees pitching forms a battle between depth and top-end talent. The Yankees arguably have the best pitcher of any team in C.C. Sabathia, who has been absolutely brilliant in the postseason. Since Joe Girardi is committed to the three-man rotation of Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, he can use Sabathia three times in a seven-game series.

However, the Phillies have major talent to match the Yankees with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Hamels has scuffled at times this postseason but is a proven big-game pitcher as last seasons World Series MVP. Cliff Lee has been absolutely untouchable in the playoffs.

What really separates the Phillies from the Yankees is depth, however. In Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Pedro Martinez and Jamie Moyer, the Phillies No. 3 through 6 starters could pass off as a full rotation on many teams. If the Sabathia or Burnett gets fatigued from overwork, who can the Yankees turn to? Chad Gaudin? An erratic Joba Chamberlain? The Phillies, meanwhile, have a potential Rookie of the Year ready at the drop of a hat in Happ plus a future Hall-of-Famer in Pedro. In a closely matched series that could produce some extra-innings games, Philadelphias pitching depth will pay major dividends.

Free sport picks: Phillies

World Series odds maker breakdown: Bullpen
There isnt much to say about the bullpens that you dont already know. Brad Lidge is a major wild card at closer for Philly and, even if he was at the top of his game, the Phillies bullpen would still be inferior. As long as the Bronx Bombers have Mariano Rivera trotting out for the ninth inning and beyond, they have the better relievers. Honorable mention goes to Phil Hughes, who has been stellar in long relief for New York. The former blue-chip starting pitcher had a 1.40 ERA after being moved to the pen this season.

Free Pick: Yankees

World Series odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Yankees deserve credit for vastly improved defense this season; Mark Teixeira makes a big difference at first, Derek Jeter flashed his old brilliance and even Alex Rodriguez has been surprisingly steady in the playoffs.

However, the Phillies athletic group is definitely superior. Jimmy Rollins remains a good playmaker at shortstop and Chase Utley usually plays sound D at second. Most importantly, Philly has the National Leagues best defensive center fielder in Gold Glover Shane Victorino. With their solid group of defenders, its no surprise that the Phillies had the second-fewest errors in the majors this season and tied for second in fielding percentage at .987.

If you think defense is overrated, think again. Seven of the eight 2009 playoff seeds ranked in the top 10 in fielding percentage.

Free sport picks: Phillies

World Series betting breakdown: Outlook and Free Pick
Anything short of a classic would be disappointing. Each team has big stars power pitchers, speedsters and, of course, prolific power hitters. No sluggers are playing better than Ryan Howard and Alex Rodriguez right now. Betting on the World Series odds feels like flipping a coin, but depth will prevail. The Phillies superior pitching depth, baserunning and defense will edge them past the Yankees and make them the first back-to-back World Series champs since you guessed it the Yankees of 1999-2000. Free Pick Philadelphia.

Free sports picks: Phillies in seven

For updated World Series odds, check out the BetOnline.com sportsbook throughout the Fall Classic. Keep reading the Free sport picks for more expert sports betting advice on any game or event you can imagine.

Dale Lalonde is BetOnline.com’s MLB expert.

Were the Phillies your NLCS picks? Most sportsbook odds makers underestimated the defending World Series champs, favoring the Dodgers to win the National League Championship series. With the Phillies up 3-1 in the series now, savvy bettors who picked the Phillies are sitting pretty. Can the Dodgers stay alive tonight?

Dodgers vs Phillies odds: Phillies star power will shine through tonight

Red-hot Padilla will keep L.A. in the game as long as he can
Cole Hamels not as bad as his numbers suggest in the playoffs this season
Ryan Howard is unstoppable right now, with 14 RBI in eight playoff games

Tonight, 8:07 p.m. ET
Dodgers vs Phillies odds: Dodgers +127, Phillies -147
Vicente Padilla (0-0, 1.23) vs Cole Hamels (1-0, 6.75)

Its easy to write the Dodgers off tonight after Jonathan Broxtons blown save broke their spirits in Game 4. Its also tempting to dismiss Vicente Padilla and assume hell come back to Earth. But the guy continues to defy logic. Between the regular season and playoffs, hes now unbeaten in nine starts as a Dodger. In the postseason, hes allowed just one earned run in 14.1 innings over two starts. Hes throwing strikes and even missing a decent number of bats. Given his career struggles in recent seasons, it doesnt make sense for Padilla to keep dominating, but hes doing it anyway.

Cole Hamels is the anti-Padilla the star pitcher with playoff pedigree who hasnt found himself so far in the playoffs. Hes been rocked for eight runs and three homers over 10.1 innings. Tracing back to the end of regular-season MLB betting, something just isnt right with Hamels.

I cant blame some online sports betting fans for writing off the struggling Hamels and riding the hot Padilla tonight, but we have to look past the obvious stats to understand what Hamels can do. In his 10.1 ugly innings, hes walked just one batter, so hes clearly throwing tons of strikes. Usually, if a pitcher still hits the plate during a slump, hes due to bust out. Also, Hamels was cruising along just fine in Game 1 against the Dodgers until Chase Utley botched a throw on what shouldve been an inning-ending double play. Hamels then served up a two-run homer to Manny Ramirez.

Though it was still partially his fault, Hamels simply lost focus. Tonight, pitching at home with his team one win away from returning to the World Series, Hamels should have his killer instinct back.

Free sports picks: All signs point to another solid outing from Padilla, but the peripheral numbers also suggest Hamels will finally break out tonight. Despite the slugging weve seen from both sides in this series, expect a pitchers duel, with Hamels turning in his best performance of the 2009 playoffs so far. The one guy we can count on for offense is the sizzling Ryan Howard. Hes batting .379 with 14 RBI in eight playoff games this year and just tied a major-league record with an RBI in his eighth straight postseason contest. Hes also the only guy to take Padilla deep in the playoffs this year. The Phillies will book their ticket to a second straight World Series.

Dodgers vs Phillies Free sport picks: Phillies -147

Keep visiting the BetOnline.com sportsbook for updated Dodgers vs Phillies odds and bookmark the Free sport picks for more comprehensive baseball sports betting analysis from Dale Lalonde.

Dale Lalonde is BetOnline.com’s MLB expert.

ALCS betting just got a lot more interesting, didnt it? After Jeff Mathis walkoff double yesterday, the Angels are down 2-1 to the New York Yankees in the American League Championship Series. Sportsbook bettors shouldnt be too surprised by the comeback; the Angels are a great team. But can they pull even tonight?

ALCS betting: Walkoff win, Kazmir give the Angels plenty of confidence tonight

C.C. dominant in the playoffs and tough to beat tonight
Scott Kazmir has a 2.67 ERA in 14 starts against the Yankees
Six of the nine Yankee regulars bat below .200 off Kazmir in their careers

Tonight, 7:57 p.m. ET
Yankees vs Angels odds: Yankees -142, Angels +122
C.C. Sabathia (2-0, 1.23) vs Scott Kazmir (0-0, 7.50)

Going with a three-man rotation as promised, the Yanks hope C.C. Sabathia can put his heavy foot on L.A.s throat and send New York home up 3-1 in the series. While the Angels historically gave him trouble in the regular season, he quickly showed the difference between playoff baseball and regular-season baseball in Game 1 of this MLB betting matchup. Sabathia was masterful, pitching eight innings of one-run ball and striking out seven. Hes hot enough right now that past statistical splits dont mean much; the playoff incarnation of C.C. is a safe bet for another stellar effort.

Theres just one problem for the Yankees and its name is Scott Kazmir. Sure, Kazmirs ALDS performance against the Red Sox left a lot to be desired, but Kazmir is a known Yankee destroyer. In a fairly large sample 14 career starts Kazmir has a 2.67 ERA. The power lefty also holds the Yanks to a .221 average.

Most impressive is Kazmirs track record against most of the Yankees top sluggers. Jorge Posada and Mark Teixeira have his number, but check out the career averages of these other Yankee stalwarts versus Kazmir.

Robinson Cano: .154
Johnny Damon: .167
Derek Jeter: .111
Hideki Matsui: .179
Alex Rodriguez: .125
Nick Swisher: .185

Thats two thirds of the Yankee starters hitting below the Mendoza line against him.

Free sports picks: Pitching against a team he dominates and in the comfort of his home stadium, Kazmir is a safe online sports betting pick to keep the Yankees in check. Expect a low-scoring game and bet on the Angels to edge the Yankees and even up the series.

Yankees vs Angels Free sport picks: Angels +122

Now that you have your sports betting advice, visit the BetOnline.com sportsbook to wager on Yankees vs Angels odds and much more.

Dale Lalonde is BetOnline.com’s MLB expert.

As I prepare for a keeper-league Fantasy draft, I’ve read roughly 200 stories headlined . Inevitably each of these pieces trains its gaze on players who have been watched, discussed, poked, prodded, analyzed and deconstructed within an inch of their being. They are less than helpful.

Tigers rookie second baseman Scott Sizemore is worth paying attention to. (AP) The problem: nowadays, even the lowliest of 25th-man aspirants is a known commodity. Assuming you have a baseball IQ that registers in the low double-digits, there is nothing you can learn about a during spring training that will in any way affect his draftability, unless he shatters a tibia or joins the Chechen separatist movement.

Hence I present a compilation of . Ignore them. Skip over their blurbs in baseball magazines and annuals. Focus on what you don’t know, not what you do.

Catcher

Matt Wieters, Orioles: He’ll either be good, very good or very, very, very good this season. He’ll still go four rounds too high, owing to his esteemed status among prospect fetishists and that he’ll be more fun to draft than last year’s behind-the-mask wonderboy, Geovany Soto. Just nod your head, say “good pick” and move on, man. Just move on.

Instead … Look west. Russell Martin of the Dodgers arrived at spring training in far different shape than he did in 2009, when he appeared to have spent the offseason interning at Ragu. His newfound conditioning should help him stay strong during the play-everyday-always catcher boot camp that is a Joe Torre-run team. Then there’s the Angels’ Mike Napoli, who does bad, bad things to left-handed pitchers. If Mike Scioscia can stop crushing on Jeff Mathis and his ability to commune telepathically with members of the pitching and coaching staffs, Napoli could be the rare 25-dinger dude behind the plate.

First base

James Loney, Dodgers: In the best-case scenario, he’s Mark Grace minus the high batting aver in any league with fewer than 18 teams, you shouldn’t settle fo there’s no reason to gamble that Loney will pull one of those age-26-season power spikes out of his … uh, bat.

Instead … Hold your nose. Owning Billy Butler will necessarily require you to follow, watch or even root for the Kansas City Royals. There will be days this season when the Royals trot out a lineup that includes Scott Podsednik, Jason Kendall, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Guillen (that’s an at the end of that sentence, not an ). Anyway, Butler has scoreboard-shattering power and won’t turn 24 until next month. Watch him this spring in the small chance that there will be enough OBP around him in the lineup to juice his counting stats.

Second base

Ben Zobrist, Rays: Can he turn in a repeat performance? Will he once again betray his utility-piffle lineage and earn MVP consideration (though nowhere near as much as he deserves, because his last name isn’t Morneau)? It doesn’t matter. Some owner will catch wind of the .948 2009 OPS and the joint 2B/OF eligibility, and take Zobrist off the board a few picks after Ian Kinsler disappears. Congratulate that owner on this joyous occasion. Candlesticks always make a nice gift.

Instead … shoot for Zobrist-lite. Scott Sizemore has a guaranteed gig and, if everything plays out this month, could find himself hitting between Johnny Damon and the newly hooch-free Miguel Cabrera near the top of the Tigers lineup. Just be wary ankled him last fall.

Third base

Chone Figgins, Mariners: What we know: He steals a bunch of bases at a medium-percentage clip; he has relocated to a home stadium that suppresses offense; his 101 walks in 2009 exceeded his previous career best by 36; and human beings tend to get slower, not faster, as they enter their mid-30s. These are not state secrets.

Instead … Panic. The third-base player pool is as devoid of big-ish names as the second-base one, and lacks a redemptive smattering of speed guys. In the parallel universe that is Fantasy baseball, quick and slappy second basemen will have more value than their plodding low-round brethren on the left side of the diamond. Invest early in one of the elite six (A-Rod, Longoria, Wright, Zimmerman, Sandoval, Youkilis), is what I’m trying to say.

Shortstop

Jimmy Rollins, Phillies: He’s ha the first three months of 2 and somehow this landed him on many a decline-phase list. Don’t overthink this. The only shortstop that ranks as a more reliable 20/20 bet is Florida’s Hanley Ramirez.

Instead … Check out the primo rebound candidates. Neither Arizona’s Stephen Drew nor Alexei Ramirez of the White Sox performed anywhere near as well in 2009 as their late-2008 surges suggested they might. At the same time, both saw notable improvement i a lingering hamstri that helps explain the drop-off. I wouldn’t bet on Drew or Ramirez matching Derek Jeter’s numbers in 2010, but I wouldn’t bet against it, either.

Outfield

A. McCutchen (Getty Images) Shin-Soo Choo, Indians: Last year’s super-sleeper is this year’s over-hypee, and the Paul O’Neill impression Choo pulled off in 2009 likely represents his ceiling. Mind those strikeouts, will you?

Instead … Turn your sad gaze to the loserhead franchises in the NL Central. Pittsburgh has an under-the-radar multi-category guy in Andrew McCutchen, while Cincinnati’s Jay Bruce and Houston’s Hunter Pence have lost their new-kid-on-the-block sheen in the minds of many potential owners. Watch all three to ensure that they receive batting-order placement commensurate with their run-prod Cincy’s Dusty Baker, still unable to distinguish between a guy who gets on base 29 percent of there’s reason for concern.

Starting pitcher

Josh Beckett, Red Sox: There’s worry in certain dim corners of Red Sox Nation that Beckett might be troubled by his pending free agency, specifically that the team may have already inked his replacement in the form of one John Lackey. But really, does Beckett strike you as the kind of guy who concerns himself with anything beyond basic human necessities (food, shelter, form-fitting Ed Hardy T-shirts, etc.)? He works hard and will practice his craft in front of an elite defensive team. Good things will follow, as they usually do.

Instead … Monitor every pitch thrown by guys on the cusp of acedom, especially Detroit’s Max Scherzer. As a bat-missing sort, he shouldn’t be hampered by the mostly slow and instinct-free defenders behind him. Yes, his innings count jumped sharply in 2009, plus he leaves the warm womb of the bunt-happy NL for the considerably less forgiving AL. I’m bullish nonetheless.

Reliever

Mariano Rivera, Yankees: He will pitch somewhere between six and nine innings before camp breaks. Afterwards, with the humility and inner calm usually attributed to Buddhist clergymen, he will proclaim that he “felt good out there.” There is little he might do that could surprise us.

Instead … Pay no attention at all. Any reliever co by my count, there are only 10 laser-etched into that role is only two April blowups away from middle relief or a demotion to the minors. Wait until somebody gets hurt or hot, then pounce.

Strange?

Compared to the man taking ground balls on a back field, seeing the Orioles train here after 14 years in Fort Lauderdale is not strange.

Compared to who was leading the Orioles’ base-running drills not long ago, seeing a record number of below-60-degree days in Florida is not strange.

“No, no, it’s not strange,” protested the old infielder, of his own situation, as he sits in front of another locker on another spring day, his career now 14 years down the road. “Because baseball is always a business.

“Even for as many years as you play, for as many teams as you play, you never say you can’t come back.”

Were this any old infielder in any old uniform, the words would make sense and easily roll away.

That this is Miguel Tejada speaking, and that he’s doing it while again wearing Orioles threads?

That’s not only strange, it’s borderline twisted enough to come straight from the pages of Edgar Allan Poe.

When he left the Orioles following the 2007 season, this man wasn’t so much traded as excommunicated.

Then, Tejada represented all that was rotten with the old Orioles. The steroid flap with Rafael Palmeiro. The losing. The diminishing-returns contract (six years, $72 million). The losing.

The Mitchell Report, which fingered Tejada as having been provided with steroids and human growth hormone from former teammate Adam Piatt, was released just one day after O’s president Andy MacPhail brilliantly found a stooge on which to unload the remainder of that contract (thanks, Houston!).

They did everything but change the locks at Camden Yards after Tejada left.

And now … come again?

“It’s weird,” All-Star second baseman Brian Roberts said. “Because sometimes it feels like he hasn’t been gone at all. And sometimes it seems like he’s been gone forever.

“Many days, it feels like he’s still in the middle of that six-year contract.”

Instead, he’s back on a one-year, $6 million deal, and he’s learning a position he resisted for years: Third base.

“I’m 35,” said Tejada, former shortstop and the 2002 AL Most Valuable Player in Oakland. “I think playing shortstop at 35 every day would be a little hard.

“I think it was time to try their offer to play third base. So I take it.”

Tejada says he had five other free-agent offers over the winter, all financially similar, but that he opted for Baltimore because he had been comfortable there and it was a chance to play every day.

“When I leave here, I never asked to leave,” he said. “I just got traded, you know?”

But the shadows followed him all the way to Texas. One year ago February, he pleaded guilty to lying to Congress about the use of performance-enhancing drugs and admitted purchasing what he believed was HGH (though he maintains he threw it away). He was sentenced to one year’s probation.

It was the most trying time of his life, though he did hit .313 with 14 homers and 86 RBI for the Astros.

“It was real tough,” he said. “I’m glad it’s over. I’m glad I came to spring training just thinking about playing baseball this year. I went through this stuff the last five years. Now it’s over. Now my mind is clear.”

Roberts, Nick Markakis and pitcher Jeremy Guthrie are the only Orioles left over from Tejada’s first tour in Baltimore. That’s how thoroughly the Orioles have cleaned house since ‘07.

“When he left, I thought that was the last time I’d ever be teammates with him, that’s for sure,” Roberts said. “I think this will work out great for both parties. The fact that we traded him two years ago for a good group of players [the Orioles received five players in return, including outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Dennis Sarfate and minor league third baseman Michael Costanzo] … now it’s come full circle.”

It wasn’t exactly MacPhail’s long-range plan.

“I’m generally not predisposed that way,” MacPhail said of reacquiring players he once dealt. “But you take it on a case-by-case basis.

“In this case, we know Miggy and he brought the things we knew we were looking for.”

If things go according to plan, Brandon Snyder, a first-round pick in 2005, will be playing first base for the O’s in the near future and Josh Bell, acquired from the Dodgers in the George Sherrill deal, will be playing third.

But neither is ready yet, which is why Tejada and Garrett Atkins ($4.5 million) are here on one-year deals.

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“What made Atkins attractive was that he could play first or third base,” said MacPhail, who signed Atkins on Dec. 18.

That gave the Orioles the ability, as the winter deepened, to pursue either a first or a third baseman. They had some interest in Adrian Beltre, but he had his sights set on Boston. On Jan. 25, they decided to take another plunge with Tejada.

“He was immensely popular in our clubhouse, and he helps us against left-handers,” MacPhail said. “When I talked to him about playing third base a few years ago, he wasn’t ready to make that move. He went to Houston and was an All-Star shortstop for a couple of years, so he probably was right.”

Now, there is no question that a new chapter is beginning.

Tejada is fielding ground balls at third from coach Juan Samuel early each morning.

“Everything is going to be difficult at third base,” acknowledged Tejada, who fielded one bouncer cleanly in the first inning but then booted one in the third Wednesday in the Orioles’ Grapefruit League opener against Tampa Bay.

“I have to work hard, like I did at shortstop, because every play will be big. When to charge bunts and when to go back to the base on bunts, that’s going to be hard.”

He’s out front in the base-running drills, which manager Dave Trembley appreciates because the Orioles were butchers on the base paths a year ago.

“More than one time, he’s told me that he wants to win,” Trembley said. “That’s what puts a smile on my face. He wants to win.”

The Orioles are pulling for him.

Some, because this team really needs to win.

“I love it,” Gold Glove center fielder Adam Jones said. “I love him coming here.”

And some because, well, the team really needs to win because the guy has been through so much over the past five years.

“He’s handled it with grace,” said Roberts, who also was named in the Mitchell Report. “I think he’s accepted responsibility for anything he’s done wrong. I think people respect him for that. It would be nice if people would accept him.

“In Baltimore, too, because he went out with a bad name. And, really, in my eyes, it was undeserved. He busted his butt. He made a commitment to bring this franchise back to where it should be.”