World Series odds up already? You bet. With a matchup so epic and so evenly matched, online betting sharps need all the time they can get to prepare for the Yankees/Phillies series. We know these teams have truckloads of World Series rings. We know the Phillies’ bullpen and Yankees’ starting rotation have question marks. So who has the edge?
World Series Odds: Three-man pitching rotation can only carry Yankees for so long
WHAT: World Series betting
WHEN: Tentative start date is Wednesday, October 28, time TBD
KEY STAT: Yankees and Phillies ranked first and second in the majors in homers this season
PICK: Phillies in seven
World Series odds maker breakdown: Hitting lineup
Choosing between these two lineups in MLB betting is like choosing between Mary-Kate and Ashley Olsen – does one have an advantage over the other? The Phillies and Yankees easily boast the two deepest, most powerful, most intimidating lineups in baseball. Both teams tear the cover off the ball; four Phillies had 30-plus homers and seven Yankees had 20-plus homers. The Phillies have Ryan Howard but the Yanks have Mark Teixeira; the Phillies have Chase Utley but the Yanks have Robinson Cano. The list goes on.
Arguably, the Phillies are better baserunners than the Yankees, as their best athletes – Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth and even Utley – are in their primes while the Yankees’ fleet-footed regulars – Johnny Damon and Derek Jeter – are getting older and slowing down.
Since the Yankees’ hitting lineup may be slightly deeper at the bottom of the order, they cancel out Philly’s baserunning advantage. These two offenses are dead even.
Free sport picks : Draw
World Series odds maker breakdown: Starting pitching
The Phillies’ and Yankees’ pitching forms a battle between depth and top-end talent. The Yankees arguably have the best pitcher of any team in C.C. Sabathia, who has been absolutely brilliant in the postseason. Since Joe Girardi is committed to the three-man rotation of Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte, he can use Sabathia three times in a seven-game series.
However, the Phillies have major talent to match the Yankees with Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. Hamels has scuffled at times this postseason but is a proven big-game pitcher as last season’s World Series MVP. Cliff Lee has been absolutely untouchable in the playoffs.
What really separates the Phillies from the Yankees is depth, however. In Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Pedro Martinez and Jamie Moyer, the Phillies’ No. 3 through 6 starters could pass off as a full rotation on many teams. If the Sabathia or Burnett gets fatigued from overwork, who can the Yankees turn to? Chad Gaudin? An erratic Joba Chamberlain? The Phillies, meanwhile, have a potential Rookie of the Year ready at the drop of a hat in Happ plus a future Hall-of-Famer in Pedro. In a closely matched series that could produce some extra-innings games, Philadelphia’s pitching depth will pay major dividends.
Baseball picks : Phillies
World Series odds maker breakdown: Bullpen
There isn’t much to say about the bullpens that you don’t already know. Brad Lidge is a major wild card at closer for Philly and, even if he was at the top of his game, the Phillies’ bullpen would still be inferior. As long as the Bronx Bombers have Mariano Rivera trotting out for the ninth inning and beyond, they have the better relievers. Honorable mention goes to Phil Hughes, who has been stellar in long relief for New York. The former blue-chip starting pitcher had a 1.40 ERA after being moved to the pen this season.
Free Pick: Yankees
World Series odds maker breakdown: Defense
The Yankees deserve credit for vastly improved defense this season; Mark Teixeira makes a big difference at first, Derek Jeter flashed his old brilliance and even Alex Rodriguez has been surprisingly steady in the playoffs.
However, the Phillies’ athletic group is definitely superior. Jimmy Rollins remains a good playmaker at shortstop and Chase Utley usually plays sound “D” at second. Most importantly, Philly has the National League’s best defensive center fielder in Gold Glover Shane Victorino. With their solid group of defenders, it’s no surprise that the Phillies had the second-fewest errors in the majors this season and tied for second in fielding percentage at .987.
If you think defense is overrated, think again. Seven of the eight 2009 playoff seeds ranked in the top 10 in fielding percentage.
Free MLB picks : Phillies
World Series betting breakdown: Outlook and Free Pick
Anything short of a classic would be disappointing. Each team has big stars – power pitchers, speedsters and, of course, prolific power hitters. No sluggers are playing better than Ryan Howard and Alex Rodriguez right now. Betting on the World Series odds feels like flipping a coin, but depth will prevail. The Phillies’ superior pitching depth, baserunning and defense will edge them past the Yankees and make them the first back-to-back World Series champs since – you guessed it – the Yankees of 1999-2000.
Free sports picks: Phillies in seven
For updated World Series odds, check out the BetOnline.com sportsbook throughout the Fall Classic. Keep reading the Free sport picks for more expert sports betting advice on any game or event you can imagine.
Dale Lalonde is BetOnline.com’s MLB expert.
